As of February 28th, 2024, the Go Fast and Win and TSP Live Degenerate Portfolios show that parlays have a combined ROI of +11.7% on 301 wagers. So much for parlays being a “sucker’s bet,” right?

If you’re unfamiliar with the portfolios or how they’re tracked, visit:
👉 TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/
(Also linked under “Records & Logs” in the main site menu.)

But as people reviewed those numbers, the conversation quickly shifted:

“Can that parlay ROI be enhanced by using Round Robins?”

Let’s dig in. 🎯

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🧠 What Is a Round Robin?

A Round Robin takes a single parlay with multiple legs and breaks it into smaller combinations of parlays. It’s a way to avoid the pain of just one loss killing a great ticket.

🔢 Example: 4-Leg Parlay Options

You can break down a 4-leg parlay like this:

Option	Combinations	Outcome (3-1 Day)	Outcome (2-2 Day)	Outcome (4-0 Day)
Six 2-leg parlays	6	+4.8 units	-2.4 units	+16.2 units
Four 3-leg parlays	4	+3 units	-4 units	+24 units
Combo	6 (2-leg) + 4 (3-leg) = 10 total	Mix return based on results

You can even add the original 4-leg parlay on top for 11 total parlays.

⚠️ Warning: DO NOT fall for those “second chance parlays” offered by books that pay partial if you miss one leg. The odds are garbage. Real Round Robins give you more value and control.

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✅ Is There an Edge to Using Round Robins?

Depends on the content you’re betting.

For the general public, who win <52.4% of the time, round robins are just another losing bet.
But for TSP content—with documented profitable parlay performance—YES, there’s a strategic edge.

🎯 When They Shine:

• You’re confident in the legs but want partial protection from a 3-1 or 4-1 day
• You want more frequent cashes than traditional parlays allow
• You want to smooth variance during cold runs

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🧍‍♂️ Round Robins for the Impatient Bettor

Let’s face it—parlays test your patience.

You could go 0-10, then hit two in a row and suddenly go from deep red to green. That works if you’re disciplined.

But if you’re the type who:

• Needs to see frequent wins
• Struggles emotionally with parlay variance

…then Round Robins are a good compromise.

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💰 How Much Should You Risk on a Round Robin?

Here’s a guideline:

If you were originally going to bet 1 unit on a 4-leg parlay, but now prefer a Round Robin of four 3-leg parlays:

• Bet 0.25 to 0.30 units per parlay
• That’s a total exposure of 1 to 1.2 units, in line with your original intent

❌ Don’t bet 1 unit per parlay and risk 4 units when you were originally risking 1.
✅ Think of Round Robins as a risk-splitting strategy, not a risk-inflating one.

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⚠️ Reality Check: Betting Still Requires Patience & Strategy

Let’s clear this up now:

Round Robins won’t make you invincible.

Yes, the pro betting life looks glamorous—freedom, beachside bankrolls, fine dining, and total flexibility. But the dark side is real:

• You can work 300 hours in a month and still lose money
• You could be right most of the time, and still hit a cold run
• This business rewards long-term grind, not instant gratification

Even Billy Walters, the most famous public bettor, would be humbled by the elite sharp groups I’ve known—people you’ll never hear about but who operate on a level most can’t fathom.

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🧠 Round Robins: Just Another Tool in the Arsenal

They’re not the Holy Grail. They’re not a cheat code.
But they are useful when:

• Markets are cold
• You want parlay exposure without needing perfection
• You trust the content behind the bets (like TSP portfolios)

Sometimes your gut tells you today’s a good Round Robin day—listen to it. Tools are only as good as the person using them.

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🏁 Final Word

Round Robins are not a gimmick. They’re a smart way to spread risk, protect upside, and stay in the game—especially during choppy waters.

Used properly and within your risk comfort zone, they can be a reliable part of your strategy—especially with proven, profitable content behind them.

Good luck—and may your 3-1 days pay off like 4-0s! 🧠💵🔥

One of the hardest concepts to get across to bettors is this:

No matter how good you are, cold streaks are part of the game.

You’re going to have periods where you couldn’t pick the quinella in a two-horse race. If you truly want to avoid losing, the solution is simple:

Don’t gamble.

But if you’re reading this, your chances of walking away from gambling are probably the same as your chances of never experiencing a losing month:
ZERO.

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🛡️ Minimizing Losses Is the Real Edge

Since you can’t avoid losses, the next best thing is learning how to minimize them when they hit.

One of the core tools I use for this is the TSP Index, which helps track whether sharp or public money is trending in the betting markets.

🔗 Check the Index here: TSP Index on TheSharpPlays.com
📘 Or dive deeper in this article: TSP Live Education: Using the Index

But instead of explaining how the Index works, let me show you how it helped optimize real-money results recently in both:

• The Degenerate Portfolio (TSP Live subscriber content)
• The Go Fast and Win Portfolio (free content)

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📅 Real Example: Late December 2023 into January 2024

⚠️ December 28th – Index Hits 3.3

When the Index hits 3.3 or higher, it’s typically a sign that a sharp run is near its end, and regression is likely.

On December 28th, I alerted TSP Live subscribers that we were at that point.

❄️ Cold Period Follows (Dec 28 – Jan 7)

What followed?

• 11 days of cooler content
• The Degenerate Portfolio lost just -1.14 units

Not ideal—but thanks to tight bankroll management and cautious play, we kept the damage minimal.

🎯 The key: Anticipating the cold stretch and scaling risk accordingly.

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🔁 The Turn: January 8–9, 2024

On January 8th, things turned:

• Degenerate Portfolio: +0.45 units (Parlay + Straight Win on Washington/Michigan UN56.5)
• Go Fast and Win: +0.20 units

The following morning, the Index turned upward, signaling a shift in market momentum back to sharp bettors.

💥 January 9th – Explosion of Wins

• TSP Content (Free + Paid): 6-0 sweep
• Go Fast and Win: 3-0 including a +210 DRAW in Italian soccer
• Degenerate Portfolio: 3-0 on different wagers

Result:

• Go Fast and Win: +0.52 units
• Degenerate Portfolio: +0.40 units

Over just two days: +0.85 units regained after a cold stretch of -1.14 units.

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🧠 Maximize Wins. Minimize Losses. Know the Environment.

The TSP Index isn’t a crystal ball. It can’t prevent cold runs.
But it can help you spot them early—and position you to capitalize when the turn hits.

📊 One glance at the Index each day can make a major difference.
It’s free, takes one minute, and it’s right here: TSP Index

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🔒 Extra Value for TSP Live Subscribers

TSP Live members get an expanded version of the Index, which includes:

• Daily activity levels by league/sport
• Trend analysis (who’s in control: sharps or public)
• Special alerts based on momentum shifts

This version goes beyond the surface and helps guide your strategy at a granular level.

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🧘 The Mental Game: Accepting the Inevitable

Losses are part of this game.
You can’t always avoid them—but you can prepare for them, play smart, and keep them small.

❌ I wish no TSP Live subscriber ever had a losing day, week, or month…
✅ But that’s just not realistic.

What is realistic?

• Ride the hot streaks 🚀
• Play tight through the cold spells 🧊
• Be ready to pounce when the trend flips 🔁

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🏁 Final Thoughts: It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Gambling isn’t easy. But it doesn’t have to be impossible.
You can bet daily and succeed if you understand the market environment and follow a smart, strategic plan.

TSP Live was built to teach those very strategies—refined over 30 years of personal betting and 20 years as a professional.

You won’t win every day.
But you don’t need to…
You just need to stay in the game long enough to capitalize when the edge is on your side.

Good luck out there—and remember to bet smart!

As we close in on the end of the NFL season, bettors get obsessed with two major narratives:

1. “Must-win” games for playoff contention
2. Player incentives and contract bonuses

Let’s unpack both—and more importantly, let’s talk about how books already know all this and adjust accordingly.

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🚨 Must-Win ≠ Must-Cover

Every year, casual bettors fall into the same trap:

“This team HAS to win, so they WILL win… and cover!”

Wrong. Books bake the must-win angle directly into the line—and often inflate it even further because they know the public will blindly back these teams.

So, while the team may be motivated, the price is rarely fair. In fact, it’s usually negative or neutral value at best.

💬 The Books’ Play:

“If the public is gonna hammer this team, we’ll make them pay for it.”

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❌ Fading Must-Win Teams: Not Perfect, But Profitable

Let’s be clear:

• Fading must-win teams does not win 80–100% of the time
• But done right, it grinds long-term profit

You can expect a win rate in the 54–57% range, which may not excite the casual gambler—but that’s a +3% to +9% edge against the house.

🎲 Casinos make millions on games with 1.36% edge.
Imagine what you can do with 3–9%.

🧠 Key Strategy:

• Let the public inflate the price
• Then fade the must-win team—especially against a motivated underdog

🔎 Example: Week 18 – Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

• Jags opened at -3.5
• Public ran it up to -5.5
• Tennessee, at home and motivated, becomes the value side

Even if the Jags win, you’re backing the side that offers real value, not hype.

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🪙 Player Incentives: Motivation ≠ Lock

The final week also brings contract bonuses into play. Players chasing stat milestones for big payouts attract tons of betting attention—especially on props.

🎯 But here’s the issue:

If someone on Instagram or Twitter knows about the incentive,
the book knows too—and the price reflects it.

Plus, you’re assuming:

• The player will get the opportunity
• The team wants them to get the bonus

Not always the case. Some teams rest starters, tweak game plans, or intentionally avoid triggering bonuses to save money.

⚖️ Betting props based on incentives?

• Sometimes the player cashes and gets paid 💰
• Other times, they vanish from the script 🫥

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🔥 Popular Player Incentives (Heading into Week 18)

Here are some of the most talked-about bonus chases:

Player	Incentive Goal
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)	49 receiving yards = $1M bonus
	7 catches = $250K bonus
Chris Jones (KC)	0.5 sacks = $1.25M bonus
Dalton Schultz (HOU)	4 catches = $250K
	6 catches = additional $250K (Total: $500K)
Austin Ekeler (LAC)	110 total yards (rush + rec) = $100K bonus
Lavonte David (TB)	0.5 sacks = $150K bonus

⚠️ Lines may not be posted yet, and again, the prices may be shaded toward public perception. Don’t expect value unless you’re sharp with timing or can read the market’s hesitation.

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🧠 Final Word: Think Before You Follow the Hype

Whether it’s a must-win team or a player chasing a bonus:

• Motivation doesn’t equal value
• Books are ahead of the public narrative
• Blind betting these angles = donating money

Instead:

• Look for inflated lines to fade
• Bet props only when the price reflects true value—not just social media buzz
• Use data, logic, and discipline—not emotion or urgency

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Bet smart. Think deeper. And as always—good luck in your action! 🧢💵

❄️ Parlays & Teasers During Cold Runs: A Strategic Approach

Most people get the logic of using parlays and teasers during hot runs—the multiplier effect supercharges returns when you’re hitting. But what about during cold streaks?

Believe it or not, parlays and teasers have real utility during losing runs too—when used with intention. Here’s how I apply them based on 25+ years of betting success.

✍️ These are my personal strategies. You may disagree, and that’s perfectly fine—but I’m not changing them. They work for me.

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🎯 Parlays: Managing Risk & Setting Up for Rebounds

I’ve written plenty about parlays already:

• Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool
• Parlays Aren’t Just for Suckers Anymore

So I won’t rehash everything. But let’s focus on why I use them even when the market feels ice cold.

💡 Why Parlays Work During Cold Streaks:

• Low Risk, High Upside:
  Betting one 3-leg parlay for 1 unit is often better than three separate straight bets at 1.1 units each.
• Positioning for the Turn:
  When content turns, it often turns sharply positive.
  A well-placed parlay can capitalize on that swing with multiplied gains.
• Flexibility:
  I may use parlays to lock in lines early that aren’t strong enough yet for full straight wagers, but I still like them.

✅ Even in the cold, parlays let me stay active without overexposing my bankroll.

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🔧 Teasers: Adding Edge in Tight Margins

Just like parlays, teasers can thrive in hot markets. But they’re also surprisingly valuable in cold ones.

🔍 Why Teasers Help in a Losing Run:

• Many cold streak losses come by razor-thin margins.
  You’ve lived it—losses by 1 point, or worse, the hook.
• Teasers give you extra points, which can turn:
  • ❌ A narrow straight bet loss
  • ✅ Into a teaser win
• You’re also reducing total exposure. One teaser at 1 unit beats firing 2–3 straight bets at 1.1 units each when it’s cold.

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🧠 My Golden Rule for Teasers

Only use teasers if you already like the play at the current spread.

Here’s what that means:

• ✅ You like Miami -10 ➝ Teasing them to -4 adds value
• ❌ You don’t like Miami -10, but do like -4 ➝ Avoid using them in a teaser

It seems counterintuitive, but I learned this from my betting Yoda, and it’s been gold ever since.

🚫 Teaser Traps I Generally Avoid:

• Crossing zero (e.g. -3 to +3)
• College football totals
• Basketball teasers

⚠️ I tend to avoid these—not always. Sometimes the spot justifies it. But it’s rare.

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🧩 What About Wong Teasers?

Honestly? I think books have caught up to the Wong teaser angle.

They’ve adjusted lines to kill off the edge. So I don’t put too much stock into it anymore—just another tool that’s lost its punch.

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🔁 To Recap: Strategy Over Emotion

During cold streaks:

• Parlays let you stay active with minimal risk and maximum upside if a sharp turn hits.
• Teasers help you survive the tight-loss hellscape and stretch thin edges into wins.

And always remember:

Use these tools when they make sense—not out of boredom or frustration.

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🏁 Final Word

Cold streaks test every bettor. But they’re also opportunities—if you’re using the right tools in the right way.

Parlays and teasers aren’t just hot-run heroes. When used strategically, they can also be lifelines in the ice.

Stay smart, bet intentionally—and as always, good luck in your action! 🔥

Rollovers are a term I started using to describe a simple but powerful betting strategy:
Taking the risk and profit from one wager and rolling it into another.

It’s like a parlay’s cousin—offering leverage—but with the flexibility and control of a straight bet.

👉 Want the full breakdown?
Read the full article: What Is a Rollover?

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💡 Why Use a Rollover?

The power of a rollover lies in its low risk, high upside profile.

• Start with as little as 0.1 units of bankroll
• Roll your winnings + original risk into the next bet
• Watch it compound—just like a parlay, but step-by-step

📈 Example:

In March, I started a public rollover on Twitter with 0.1 units.
After multiple successful steps, I turned it into +7.3 units of profit.

That’s a 73-to-1 return on my original risk! 💥

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🛡️ Perfect for Uncertain Markets

Rollovers shine when:

• 📉 The TSP Index is trending down
• 🌀 The markets are mixed or foggy
• ⚠️ You’re cautious about sharp angle quality for the day

With a rollover, you can still engage with the market without overexposing your bankroll.

🧠 You stay active if the content hits. If not, your downside is tiny.

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🧬 Feed the Degenerate—Responsibly

Let’s be real—we all have a little degenerate in us. 🎲

We like action. We enjoy sweating a game on TV.
But that doesn’t mean you should risk full units recklessly.

Instead of firing 0.5 or 1 unit just to have action, use a low-risk rollover:

• ✅ You get that dopamine hit of having a wager
• ✅ You keep your risk minimal
• ✅ You give yourself a shot at a big return

And if it builds into something bigger—1, 2, even 3+ units—you’re still only exposed on that original 0.1 units.

Even if it loses late in the sequence…
It was house money. And you had fun getting there.

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🚀 When It Hits… Oh Boy!

The real thrill of a rollover?

Watching your wins snowball.

Each leg adds momentum. The pressure grows. The payout potential explodes.

And when you land that final bet?
That original 0.1 unit risk turns into a monster return—and you only risked pennies to get there.

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🎯 Final Thoughts

Rollovers aren’t just a strategic play—they’re a mentally refreshing one too.

You protect your bankroll. You keep the action alive.
And if the run is on… you’re riding it all the way with minimal downside.

Good luck and happy rolling! 🔁💰

(Originally published as two TSP Live Insider articles on 5/12/23 and 6/12/23)

When it comes to sports betting, understanding what kind of market you’re in is half the battle. Are we in a heater? A slump? A grind?

To help you answer that question, I want to introduce—or reintroduce—you to one of my favorite tools:
The Sharp Plays Index (TSP-I).

You can check it daily via TheSharpPlays.com or from the Quick Links menu on the TSP Live Dashboard.

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🧭 Three Market Environments

Whether you’re analyzing a specific sport, a week of action, or a full month, everything falls into one of three categories:

1. ✅ Strong Winning
2. 📉 Deep Losing
3. ⚖️ Flat/Break-even (grinding up/down slightly)

And here’s the kicker: not all sports or leagues are in the same state at the same time. One sport could be surging while another is in the gutter—and the rest just spinning their wheels.

That’s why you need to assess the market both:

• Macro: month/quarter by league/sport
• Micro: week/multi-week by league/sport

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🔎 What Is the TSP Index?

The TSP Index tracks performance across the entire betting market, separating out the behavior of:

• Sharp-rated bettors
• Public-rated bettors

It’s calculated by sport and across all sports combined, and it gives you a snapshot of who’s hot—and who’s not.

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📈 How to Read the TSP-I Numbers

• TSP-I Range ~0.8 to 1.1 → Market is favoring the public
• TSP-I Range ~2.9 to 3.5 → Market is favoring sharps

If the index for a sport is high (say 3.3 for soccer), that means sharps have been crushing it—but you should also be alert for a possible regression.
Conversely, if a sport is ice cold (like NBA at 0.5), it could be due for a sharp rebound or public cooldown.

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🔄 Momentum: TSP-I vs. the 5-Day Moving Average

This is where things get more powerful…

• When the TSP-I line is above its 5-day SMA, it signals that sharp money has momentum
• When TSP-I dips below the 5-day SMA, it signals the public is gaining steam

Think of the crossover as a technical indicator, much like you’d use in stock trading.

💡 When sharps are in control, I bet normally.
When the public takes the lead, I go passive and cautious.

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🔁 How to Use It In Practice

Let’s say:

• Soccer is at 3.3 → It’s hot. Still bet, but watch for signs of cooling.
• NBA is at 0.5 and climbing → Could signal a shift toward sharp value.

If the overall TSP-I line is trending upward, and especially if it’s above the moving average, the sharps are driving the market. That’s when I stay aggressive.

But when TSP-I dips below the SMA, it’s a canary in the coal mine. That’s my cue to tighten up and maybe even scale back.

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🧠 Understanding the Betting Cycle

Let’s make this clear:

• Sharps don’t always win. They go on cold streaks. But their progression runs (winning stretches) are usually longer and more profitable than their regression runs.
• The public doesn’t always lose. They get hot too. But their regression runs (cold streaks) tend to be deeper, especially because they chase losses and press bets—something sharps avoid.

🎯 The key is identifying who’s in control—and riding the wave.

That’s what the TSP Index helps you do.

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🛠️ No, It’s Not a Crystal Ball

The TSP-I is not a predictive tool, and it’s certainly not the Holy Grail.
But like any good technical indicator, it gives you informed perspective on:

• Market temperature
• Sharp/public momentum
• Potential turning points

And best of all?
It’s free. No ads. No gimmicks. Just useful intel.

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✅ Final Thoughts

If you’ve ever found yourself unsure of whether to press or pause your betting… the TSP Index is your answer.

• It takes two seconds to check.
• It’s updated daily.
• It’s a favorite tool of serious bettors who want an edge.

Bookmark it. Use it. Don’t ignore it.

Wishing you clarity, confidence, and good luck in your action! 🚀

(Originally appeared in TSP Live Insider – June 27th)

I hear it all the time…

“Sharps don’t bet lines that high.”
“Sharps would never touch a -300 favorite.”

Let me be crystal clear:
Both of those statements are completely false.

There is no such thing as a line that’s “too high” for sharp bettors—as long as there’s value.

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🔍 Case in Point: Canada in the Gold Cup

Let’s look at early sharp buying in the CONCACAF Gold Cup:

• Canada opened at -500
• Sharps pushed the line up to -800

Now, imagine I reported this as a standard sharp buy outside the context of this article. I guarantee I’d get emails:

“No way sharp money bets -500!”

But I have to ask… why not?!

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🧠 It’s All About Value, Not the Number

The usual pushback sounds like this:

“Sharps can’t win long-term betting -500 juice.”

That kind of thinking shows the person simply doesn’t understand value betting.

Here’s the math that matters:

• Let’s say -800 is fair value (an 88.89% implied probability)
• The book is offering -500 (an 83.33% implied probability)
• That’s a 5.56% edge in your favor

If that edge is real, and your valuation is sound, then…

🎯 It is mathematically impossible to lose long-term
betting -500 when the true price should be -800

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💼 How Can You Trust the Sharp’s Valuation?

Fair question.

If the book itself rates the bettor as sharp, it means that bettor has a proven track record of identifying value. So yes—there’s a very real chance their pricing is correct.

Remember: sharps don’t care about narratives or round numbers. They care about edges—whether it’s +110 or -500.

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🥊 Remember Mayweather vs. McGregor?

This is one of the most famous examples:

• The public went wild for McGregor. The line stayed around Mayweather -500 to -550
• Meanwhile, informed bettors were pricing Mayweather between -1500 and -2500

That made -500 a screaming value. And yes, sharps hammered it.

Sure, when you lose a -500 wager, it stings. But if you’re consistently betting -500 prices that should be -2500, then…

The occasional loss is just giving back a sliver of your profits.

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💡 Final Takeaway

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking there’s a “line too high” for sharp money.

If it’s a value, sharps will bet it. Period.

Whether it’s -110 or -800, sharp bettors are playing the long game of ROI, not clinging to outdated myths.

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Wishing you sharp eyes, steady hands, and good luck in your action! ⚡

Every football season brings in a wave of new faces to the TSP Live community. One of the most common questions I get:
“What’s the best way to follow all the content?”

The reality? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer—but there is a strategy many veteran users swear by. It’s simple, selective, and has produced solid returns over the years—even dating back to when The Sharp Plays first hit Twitter in 2011.

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✅ It’s Not Just the KB Consensus

While blind following the KB Consensus is a proven option with three years of strong performance behind it, that’s not the strategy I’m talking about here. Anyone can figure out how to follow KB.

What many overlook is this:
Using the individual selections from my parlays or rollovers as straight bets.

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🎯 Parlay Legs as Straight Bets

Here’s the play:
When I post a three-leg parlay, some TSP Live subscribers:

• Bet the full parlay
• Bet a round robin with the same legs
• And also bet each leg individually as straight wagers

Obviously, if you’re staking 1 unit on each of these, it can quickly add up. So adjust based on your comfort level and bankroll. The key takeaway is this:

🧩 Parlay legs are often my top-rated plays for the day. I’m not randomly throwing them together. I’m building these exotics using what I believe are the sharpest angles available at the time.

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🔍 Why It Works

If I’m trying to hit a parlay or keep a rollover alive, you better believe I’m putting my best content forward.

Take this past weekend:

• Saturday: Parlay went 0-2-1
• Sunday: Parlay lost, but legs went 2-1
• Weekend Overall: 2-3-1 on parlay legs

No, it wasn’t perfect—but it was a much more manageable filter. Instead of sifting through 40+ angles from TSP Live, this strategy narrowed it down to just six.

And when things click? You cash the straight bets and hit the parlay for a double bonus. 💰

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🔥 Pay Attention to Wager Size

Not all parlays are created equal. Here’s how to tell the difference:

• Candy Money Parlay: I’m taking a shot. It’s fun money, not high confidence.
• Rollover Play (0.3–1+ units): This is serious business. These selections carry weight.

Reading between the lines on how much I’m wagering gives you insight into my confidence level on those legs.

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🧠 Don’t Blind Follow—Think Then Wager

My mission with TSP Live is to get people to think first, then wager.
Blindly paying and tailing handicappers is a losing game. You don’t learn, and worse—you usually lose.

If that kind of blind-following actually worked, you’d be reading someone else’s content today.

That said, I know some people just want picks and don’t have time to handicap. For those folks, my parlays and rollovers—public and subscriber—can serve as a smart shortcut to action.

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🏁 Final Word

Following the legs of my parlays as straight bets is a time-tested strategy.
It filters the flood of content into something manageable and gives you consistent, high-quality angles.
And when the parlay hits? 🍾 That’s just the cherry on top.

Good luck today—and may your action treat you well! 🙌

Parlay strategy could honestly fill a full thesis—but who wants to read 80 pages of math and stats? 😴 So let’s cut through the clutter and hit the high points.

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🚫 Why Most Sharps Avoid Parlays

You won’t hear many sharp bettors talk about parlays. Why? Because they’re often seen as “sucker bets.”

And to be fair—that’s true… if you’re losing more than 52.38% of your spread bets. Parlays amplify losses fast.

But…

If you’re consistently hitting above 52.38%, parlays become a profitable weapon against the book.

👉 Want a deeper dive? Read: Parlays Aren’t Just for Suckers Anymore

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🎯 My Approach: 1 Unit Strategic Parlays

When I talk parlays, I’m NOT referring to “pizza money” longshots. I’m talking about serious, 1 unit strategic parlays.

🔍 How I Build Them:

• I identify the top 2–5 angles I like most.
• I don’t use advanced modeling here—just a curated selection of what I trust most.
• If those angles are truly strong, combining them leverages your long-term edge.

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🔄 Round Robin Parlays: A Hidden Gem

Do I use Round Robins? Absolutely.

If you’re not familiar, Google it. But here’s the short version:

A Round Robin breaks up a large parlay into smaller combos.
Example: A 4-leg parlay becomes four 3-leg parlays.

✅ Why it matters:

Sometimes one leg ruins the party. But a Round Robin might still cash multiple combos and turn a losing parlay into a net gain.

📌 Example:

• 1 unit 4-leg parlay ➝ Use 0.25–0.40 units per 3-leg Round Robin.
• Total risk: ~1 to 1.5 units max.

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♻️ Re-Betting After a Missed Leg

What if the first leg goes down? Should you re-bet the others?

It depends. There’s no hard rule, but I’m often open to it.

For example, Saturday, South Alabama tanked early. I dropped them and re-parlayed the remaining legs for 1 unit.
It won. But yes—this adds risk. You could just as easily lose again.

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🔑 Keying a Selection

Sometimes, I’ll “key” a game—build multiple bets around one strong play.

Example:
I liked Buffalo Bills -2.5, so I had them in:

• A 1 unit straight bet (My Handicapping Game)
• A 1 unit TSP Live parlay
• A 1 unit replay parlay (after South Alabama tanked)
• A Twitter Rollover on Bills -150

That’s 3.2 units risked on one team.
I was comfortable with that—but would you be okay losing all 3.2 units if they lost?

If not, parlay betting might not be your thing.

⚠️ Professional gamblers can and do have -4, -5, even -7 unit days.
Thinking that shouldn’t happen just shows you don’t understand how gambling really works.

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🧘 Patience Is Everything

Parlays require TREMENDOUS PATIENCE.

There are days I lose 2–3 units on parlays alone. Some folks panic over 2-unit weekly losses—they shouldn’t touch this strategy.

💡 Key Truth:

Parlays will lose a lot.
That’s the nature of the beast.

I’ve been down -15 units on parlays…
Then hit a 20-1 longshot and a 6-1 in the same stretch. Boom—+11 units total.

Everyone loves the +26 unit day…
Few can stomach the -15 unit run that came before it.

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🎁 Parlay Boosts: Don’t Ignore Them

With legal books popping up nationwide, you’ll see more parlay boosts offered.

✅ Which boosts are worth it?

• NOT the premade parlays the book promotes. Those are garbage.
• YES to custom boosts: you build your own parlay, and the book adds 10–30% to the payout.

Even if the limits are low (like $50–$100), a sharp parlay bettor should absolutely capitalize on these.

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🏁 Final Thoughts

Parlays aren’t for everyone. They take:

• Strategy
• Patience
• Emotional control
• An understanding of variance

But for those who can weather the grind, they can be one of the sharpest tools in your betting arsenal.

Good luck, and may your next parlay smash expectations! 💥