On March 14th, 2024, I released a wager in TSP Live on Xavier/UConn UNDER 149.5. Not long after, a counter buy hit on the OVER 149 and higher. That shift presented a prime example of how to handle market movement, adjust betting strategy in real time, and even walk away with wins on both sides of a total.
Let’s break it down—this is a masterclass in handling counter buys and in-play edges.
💡 What Is a Counter Buy?
A counter buy occurs when sharp money hits both sides of the same wager, just at different times.
It’s not a head fake (which sees low early volume followed by massive later betting once limits rise). Instead:
- Example Head Fake: $1,000 on UNDER → $10,000 on OVER later
- Example Counter Buy: $1,000 on UNDER → $2,000 on OVER later
Counter buys show disagreement between sharp groups, but both sides are valid, and that volatility opens up unique opportunities—especially in live betting.
🔀 How to React When a Counter Buy Hits Against Your Position
When the OVER 149 hit after our UNDER 149.5 wager was posted, here’s how I approached it on Telegram:
1. Consider In-Play Bailout or Middle
- A similar counter buy on March 13th (Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 144) didn’t allow for a buyout—in-play price never hit the target.
- For Xavier/UConn, the in-play market dropped to 145.5 early—creating a tight 4-point middle:
- Pre-bet: UNDER 149.5
- In-play buyout: OVER 145.5
- Middle zone: 146 to 149
⚠️ Tight middle but an option for nervous bettors.
🎯 Advanced In-Play Strategy Based on Counter Buy Targets
🧠 My Target Math (Sharps on OVER 149):
- Take the worst price hit by sharps (e.g. OVER 150)
- Subtract 9 points
- Add a hook in your favor
So:
150 – 9 = 141 → Target = OVER 140.5
✅ That price did hit in-play with 8 minutes left in the game.
I didn’t bail, but shared the target and strategy for those who wanted to hedge, middle, or reposition.
🧮 Halftime Opportunity: The 2H Middle
Halftime total = 67
2H total = 80
If you took OVER 80, your scenarios looked like this:
- Final total 147:
- Win pregame UNDER 149.5
- Push on OVER 80 → ✅ Profit
- Final total 148 or 149:
- Win both bets → ✅✅
- Final total 150+:
- Lose pregame UNDER
- Win OVER 80 → ✅
This was a viable way to create a multi-out middle or partial hedge.
📊 Final Result: UConn 87 – Xavier 60 = 147 Points
Let’s look at how it all shook out:
| Wager Type | Result |
|---|---|
| Pregame UNDER 149.5 | ✅ WIN |
| In-play OVER 140.5 (target) | ✅ WIN |
| Halftime OVER 80 | ➖ PUSH |
| In-play OVER 148 (bailout option) | ❌ LOSS (but successful hedge) |
That’s a beautifully played middle and a reminder that with the right info, you can:
Cash both an OVER and an UNDER in the same game.
🛠️ Key Takeaways for Bettors
🔄 1. Use Counter Buys to Find In-Play Edges
If the counter buy hits pregame and the price is gone—don’t chase. Wait.
Let the game develop and look for an in-play entry at or better than the sharp number.
🔎 2. Set In-Play Targets Based on Sharp Behavior
Example formula:
- Take the worst price sharps hit (e.g., OVER 150)
- Subtract 9
- Add the hook = Target: OVER 140.5
Apply the same in reverse for unders.
🧘 3. Don’t Panic—Have a Plan
When rookies see a counter buy, they freak. You don’t need to.
- Use middles, in-play, or 2H wagers to minimize exposure
- With patience and discipline, you can turn scary situations into net profit
🔐 Power of TSP Live and In-Play Betting
This is what sets TSP Live apart:
- Sharp market insight
- Live market guidance
- Flexibility to act as lines evolve
In-play bettors who follow TSP info closely often perform exceptionally well because they can:
- Enter at better prices
- Hedge smartly
- Middle effectively
🏁 Final Word
You don’t need to panic when sharp money disagrees. You just need to be prepared, have targets, and use the tools at your disposal.
On March 14th, the “disagreement” between sharps gave you a chance to win both sides of a total.
Use this strategy going forward—especially during March Madness—and watch how your edges multiply.
Thanks for reading. Good luck this March and every day you’re in action! 🧠🔥💰