(Originally published as two TSP Live Insider articles on 5/12/23 and 6/12/23)
When it comes to sports betting, understanding what kind of market you’re in is half the battle. Are we in a heater? A slump? A grind?
To help you answer that question, I want to introduce—or reintroduce—you to one of my favorite tools:
The Sharp Plays Index (TSP-I).
You can check it daily via TheSharpPlays.com or from the Quick Links menu on the TSP Live Dashboard.
🧭 Three Market Environments
Whether you’re analyzing a specific sport, a week of action, or a full month, everything falls into one of three categories:
- ✅ Strong Winning
- 📉 Deep Losing
- ⚖️ Flat/Break-even (grinding up/down slightly)
And here’s the kicker: not all sports or leagues are in the same state at the same time. One sport could be surging while another is in the gutter—and the rest just spinning their wheels.
That’s why you need to assess the market both:
- Macro: month/quarter by league/sport
- Micro: week/multi-week by league/sport
🔎 What Is the TSP Index?
The TSP Index tracks performance across the entire betting market, separating out the behavior of:
- Sharp-rated bettors
- Public-rated bettors
It’s calculated by sport and across all sports combined, and it gives you a snapshot of who’s hot—and who’s not.
📈 How to Read the TSP-I Numbers
- TSP-I Range ~0.8 to 1.1 → Market is favoring the public
- TSP-I Range ~2.9 to 3.5 → Market is favoring sharps
If the index for a sport is high (say 3.3 for soccer), that means sharps have been crushing it—but you should also be alert for a possible regression.
Conversely, if a sport is ice cold (like NBA at 0.5), it could be due for a sharp rebound or public cooldown.
🔄 Momentum: TSP-I vs. the 5-Day Moving Average
This is where things get more powerful…
- When the TSP-I line is above its 5-day SMA, it signals that sharp money has momentum
- When TSP-I dips below the 5-day SMA, it signals the public is gaining steam
Think of the crossover as a technical indicator, much like you’d use in stock trading.
💡 When sharps are in control, I bet normally.
When the public takes the lead, I go passive and cautious.
🔁 How to Use It In Practice
Let’s say:
- Soccer is at 3.3 → It’s hot. Still bet, but watch for signs of cooling.
- NBA is at 0.5 and climbing → Could signal a shift toward sharp value.
If the overall TSP-I line is trending upward, and especially if it’s above the moving average, the sharps are driving the market. That’s when I stay aggressive.
But when TSP-I dips below the SMA, it’s a canary in the coal mine. That’s my cue to tighten up and maybe even scale back.
🧠 Understanding the Betting Cycle
Let’s make this clear:
- Sharps don’t always win. They go on cold streaks. But their progression runs (winning stretches) are usually longer and more profitable than their regression runs.
- The public doesn’t always lose. They get hot too. But their regression runs (cold streaks) tend to be deeper, especially because they chase losses and press bets—something sharps avoid.
🎯 The key is identifying who’s in control—and riding the wave.
That’s what the TSP Index helps you do.
🛠️ No, It’s Not a Crystal Ball
The TSP-I is not a predictive tool, and it’s certainly not the Holy Grail.
But like any good technical indicator, it gives you informed perspective on:
- Market temperature
- Sharp/public momentum
- Potential turning points
And best of all?
It’s free. No ads. No gimmicks. Just useful intel.
✅ Final Thoughts
If you’ve ever found yourself unsure of whether to press or pause your betting… the TSP Index is your answer.
- It takes two seconds to check.
- It’s updated daily.
- It’s a favorite tool of serious bettors who want an edge.
Bookmark it. Use it. Don’t ignore it.
Wishing you clarity, confidence, and good luck in your action! 🚀